MEMBERS UPDATE 15 NOVEMBER 2024

Use by date and a Best Before date to products

Please note that businesses can only apply labels with either a Use by date or Best Before date to products. Products should only bear one relevant durability date.
The provision of two conflicting dates risks confusion and products being consumed long after the Use by date. Example labels are included in pages 37 onwards from the Food Standards Guidance: Butchers. (attached)
We have been asked by Food Standards Scotland to highlight this information to members.
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Quality Meat Scotland – Monthly Market Update (Sept-Oct)

Please find our latest monthly update attached. A summary of the key points is below.

Beef:
• Prime cattle prices showed signs of steadying at record levels at Scottish abattoirs at the end of October at the same time as weekly slaughter sipped from its autumn peak, suggesting that stocks have been built or the winter and competition is not as intense. Prices have pushed 6-7% higher than last year and more than 25% above the five-year average. Although cow prices have fallen seasonally, they are looking relatively firm compared to prime beef for the time of year.
• Tight supply and rising finished cattle prices ensured that store calves traded at historically firm levels during the main autumn selling period.
• Prime cattle slaughter has increased at GB level this year, up 3% in the first nine months. In October, weekly deadweight slaughter reached an autumn peak at reporting abattoirs across GB, running 4-5% higher than its average for the year so far, before dipping slightly at the end of the month.
• The overall volume of supply added to the UK market has increased this year and while pressuring the market in the spring, it has not been enough to satisfy demand in the autumn as import growth has been subdued and export growth has held firm.
• High weekly slaughter through October suggests that the autumn peak may have arrived early for a second consecutive year in Scotland, potentially squeezing numbers in November. However, there was a renewed lift last year in December. The July population data suggested that prime cattle availability could continue to show some year-on-year uplift into 2025. However, the sharpest decline in the 2023 calf crop came during the middle of the year, and this will eventually filter through to availability. Looking longer-term, continuing herd decline in 2024 points to further falls in production beyond 2025.

Sheep:
• Lamb prices have followed a normal seasonal pattern, slipping to a seasonal low point of around 270p/kg at Scottish marts in October, before rebounding at the start of November and approaching 300p/kg. Though prices remain historically high for the time of year, increases have softened with lamb throughput showing some signs of starting to catch up, running above the five-year average at Scottish marts.
• Lamb auction and abattoir throughput has been running at a seasonally high level in recent weeks but has continued to fall well behind 2023. However, throughput at Scottish marts has run ahead of the five-year average, reflecting a later marketing pattern. Lamb supply is expected to remain fundamentally tight this season, due to a smaller ewe flock in 2023 and a second consecutive poor lambing across GB. However, the slow start to the season and front-loaded pattern of marketing in 2023/24 could generate an increased carryover of hoggs and allow some catch-up.
• GB retail data indicates that the higher farmgate prices of 2024 have started to pass through to retail prices. However, the significant spending growth and relatively flat sales volumes reported by Kantar in Q3 points to robust demand.
• Wholesale prices in France for imported lamb continue to signal an attractive export trade, reflecting a downwards trend in production in the EU, and while volumes shipped have been lower than in 2023 since Easter, they have risen as a share of UK production.
• Lamb produced in Australia and NZ continues to look highly competitively priced, supporting UK import demand along with the underlying tightness of domestic supply. However, the market has absorbed this product without any significant pressure domestic farmgate prices and New Zealand's lamb crop is expected to be significantly lower in the season which is just getting underway.
Pig:
• Pig prices have started to show a more significant seasonal decline, although the downwards trend has remained slightly slower than in 2023 and heavier carcase weights have ensured that carcase value has remained higher than in the summer. Prices have held around 20-25% above the five-year average, supporting the slow recovery of producer finances.
• GB abattoir throughput has risen slightly this year, driven by a more productive herd. Meanwhile, a seasonal uplift in weekly slaughter has combined with heavier carcase weights to place some downwards pressure on per kilo prices.
• A significant increase in pigs leaving Scottish farms for slaughter in 2024 suggests that the recovery is further forward north of the border, contrasting with the June census results which suggested a significant contraction of the Scottish pig herd
• UK pig market supply has rebounded in 2024, mostly driven by a recovery in domestic production from a slight lift in throughput and heavier weights. Soft overseas demand has limited UK exports in 2024, but imports have only edged higher despite highly attractive EU price levels.
• EU pig prices fell further in October, making EU pigmeat even more competitive, and the GB premium reached 27% at the end of the month. There has been little sign of a tighter Chinese pork market leading to higher import demand, and UK and EU exports have fallen further in 2024.
Economic Development:
• Commodity prices have generally fallen slightly in 2024, and most of the Ukraine war price shocks have unwound. In the UK, this has been added to by a stronger exchange rate. However, in general, input costs remain well above pre-covid levels. Geopolitical challenges have had less of an upside impact on commodity markets than in the past, but the uncertainty could increase in 2025 following the US election.
• Though cooling, average earnings growth has remained above inflation, which has now stabilised at 2-3%, supporting disposable incomes. While retail sales appear to have seen an uptick after a soft patch in the spring, food has underperformed non-food this year in a potential sign of spend becoming more discretionary.
• In the Kantar report for the 12 weeks to the end of September, a 3% increase in spending on beef was effectively cancelled out by inflation but there may have been some switching into higher value cuts. Spending on lamb rose significantly, but the pass-through of higher farmgate prices restricted any scope for volume growth, along with tight supply. Meanwhile, pork saw a period of softer demand, with spend and sales volumes falling by around 3%, but there may have been some trading up within the category.
• Business surveys have signalled a softening in activity and confidence this autumn, potentially linked to the budget. The ONS found a significant rebound in the labour market in the summer, and it will be interesting to see if this continues against the backdrop of weakening business sentiment.
• Consumer confidence fell ahead of the budget, though it may also have been influenced by expectations of a rise in energy prices, and it has remained higher than in 2022 and 2023. Wage growth remains well above inflation, supporting household finances, and retail sales have picked up, with some rebalancing of spending towards non-food signalling an increase in discretionary purchases.

If you have any questions or queries, please get in touch using the contact details below.
MEMBER SERVICES – Bruce McCall:             [email protected]                01738 637472
CRAFT SKILLS SCOTLAND – Claire Simpson:    [email protected]               01738 637785

Scottish Craft Butchers
8-10 Needless Road
Perth PH2 0JW
Tel: 01738 637472
Mobile: 01738 637472
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www.craftbutchers.co.uk