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Members Update – 2 April 2026

Posted on by Bruce

Newsletter Story

QMS Market Update – Pig Sector

Office Closed – Easter

 

Newsletter Story

We’re always keen to share the stories behind our members’ businesses, and we’d love to hear from you. If you have an interesting experience, recent success, unique challenge, or anything newsworthy that’s happened in your business, please do get in touch. Whether it’s a short story or a more detailed article, your contribution could be featured and shared with others. While we may not be able to publish every submission, it would be great to hear from you.

QMS Market Update – Pig Sector

To provide more regular market updates, we are moving to separate reports for the beef, lamb, and pork sectors, with one of each per quarter.

Please find attached our latest market update for the pig sector. A summary of the key points is below:

Pig Market

  • There has been little sign of a seasonal rebalancing in the pig market, with prices continuing to fall steadily in March, leaving them down more than 10.5% year-on-year. Heavier weights have offset some of the pressure on overall carcase value, but it was still down nearly 7% year-on-year in the third week of March, and pig prices may have fallen below breakeven levels. Leads over five-year averages have softened, to 3% for per kilo prices and 8% for carcase value.
  • Year-on-year increases in average carcase weights of more than 4% in March coupled with little improvement in the share of carcases in the 70-104.9kg weight range signal that there is still a backlog on farm, pressuring prices.
  • Prime pig slaughter at GB abattoirs was similar to a year earlier in the opening two months of 2026, continuing to reflect the relatively stable fattening pig population reported in last year’s June census results. Heavier weights pushed up production.
  • The number of pigs leaving Scottish farms for slaughter showed signs of improvement by late-January after a challenging end to 2025 and start to 2026 and, while remaining lower than a year earlier, down 2%, they showed a more normal seasonal trend in February. After a difficult end to 2025 and start to 2026, slaughter numbers at Scottish abattoirs showed signs of improvement in March.
  • A steep fall in EU pig prices in the final quarter of 2025 continued into 2026 as increased EU production, higher tariffs on EU pork in China and an ASF outbreak in Spain combined to pressure the market. By late-January, the GB SPP was nearly 50% above the EU average for grade E pigs. This fed through to the UK market through the impact on price negotiations of having a much cheaper alternative, as import volumes declined in late 2025 and again at the start of 2026. When combined with higher UK exports, this fall in imports more than offset higher domestic production at the start of 2026, leading to a reduction in overall market supply.
  • However, lower supply was unable to offset the combined impact of the external pricing shock and backlog on GB farmgate prices, suggesting a general weakness in the domestic market. A sharp seasonal price rebound in the EU market has yet to offer support to GB farmgate prices, with EU pork remaining highly competitive.

Economic Development

  • In 2025, geopolitical challenges had surprisingly limited impact on energy prices, but the US-Iran conflict has affected oil and gas supplies, pushing up energy, fuel and fertiliser prices, which will filter out across the economy. Prior to this conflict, natural gas and fertiliser prices had remained elevated in Europe, reflecting the limited supply of Russian gas.
  • Positive global crop prospects have ensured that feed costs remain anchored. However, there has been a slight lift in feed prices in March due to the likelihood that there will be some substitution of fossil fuels and oil with biofuels and vegetable oils, pushing up expectations for demand. The uplift has been stronger for oilseeds than grains.
  • Shifting interest rate outlooks have resulted in a change in currency levels since the onset of the new Middle East conflict, with sterling firming against the euro but softening slightly against the US dollar. These changes are negative for the balance of trade with the EU and could add to input cost pressures, though they could support exports to Asian markets.
  • Spending on red meat continued to grow significantly over the winter, although increased consumer prices resulted in reduced sales volumes, mainly driven by the elevated cost of beef. Poultry appears to have benefited most from substitution, but lamb and pork had good winters at retail level, though with signs of softer performance at the start of 2026.
  • A mixed economic picture remains, with signs of stronger private sector activity at the start of the year, but the labour market is softening, and this may begin to impact household spending power as inflation rebounds in the coming months.

Office Closed – Easter

The office in Perth will be closed on Friday 3rd April and Monday 6th April. If you have an urgent query please email one of the below emails and we will respond as soon as possible.

 If you have any questions, please contact:

 MEMBER SERVICES – Bruce McCall:                           [email protected]                01738 637472

CRAFT SKILLS SCOTLAND – Claire Simpson:             [email protected]                          01738 637785QMS Pig Market Update Q1 2026