MEMBERS UPDATE 21st JUNE 2024

Women In Meat Nominations Deadline Extended

To follow up my recent email this is a brief note to confirm we have extended the WIMIA nominations deadline to 1st July due to demand, and having received several requests to do so.

I have attached a media release. Please feel free to share this information with colleagues. The story is also online: https://meatmanagement.com/women-in-meat-industry-awards-nominations-deadline-extended/

Once nominations are in and checked, all the finalists will be publicised online for voting.

QMS – Monthly Red Meat Market Update

Beef

• A short-term seasonal uplift in availability on farm has seen prime cattle prices come under some significant pressure. While year-on-year declines have remained relatively stable at -4-5%, leads over the five-year average have softened towards 15%. Cow prices also fell back in late-May and early-June in Scotland, with availability for slaughter likely to have passed its seasonal low.
• Increased prime cattle numbers on farm at the start of 2024 have been supporting GB slaughter, which has been up significantly year-on-year.
• While weekly slaughter has been consistently strong in England & Wales, it has jumped back towards its highest levels of the year since mid-May at Scottish abattoirs, reflecting a short-term seasonal build up on farm. After moving ahead of 2023 levels in April, slaughter has also continued to show year-on-year increase through May and into June in Scotland, in line with the increase on farm in the January population data.
• Increased domestic production and imports at the start of 2024 appear to have supported a recovery in market supply after a tight end to 2023, and a well-supplied market has enabled UK export volumes to increase.
• In the short-term, a higher spring-2022 calf crop and a slight slowdown in the store cattle outflow from the highs of 2022 should be supporting prime cattle availability in Scotland, along with the seasonal increase in young bull availability. However, weekly slaughter then has a downwards trend in the summer. Numbers are expected to tighten relative to year-earlier levels in the autumn as the reduced 2023 spring calf crop starts dominating slaughter.

Lamb

• While new season lamb prices have cooled from their seasonal peak, they have remained historically firm at around the £4/kg lwt mark in the first half of June, placing them up by nearly a third on the year and by 50% on the five-year average. Hogg prices have also softened seasonally but remain historically elevated.
• There has been a slow start to the new season with significantly fewer lambs reaching Scottish marts than in May and June 2023, reflecting a wet spring, while hogg availability has tightened seasonally and year-on-year, reflecting a smaller carryover of hoggs into 2024. This fundamentally tight market situation continues to underpin market prices, along with the short-term factor of the Eid al-Adha festival in mid-June.
• GB retail data indicates that lamb sales performance continued to look positive in in the 12 weeks to mid-May 2024. However, growth in volumes relied on discounted prices for leg roasts at Easter and ONS inflation data suggests that the surge in farmgate prices has begun to be reflected in retail prices, which could begin to test the sustainability of the recent strength in demand.
• Although UK imports continued to show significant year-on-year increase in March 2024, the pre-Easter uplift was limited in historical context. In addition, export volumes remained higher than imports, resulting in a tightening effect on domestic market supply.
• In the second quarter, while imports from Australia and New Zealand may have continued to exceed 2023 levels, they are also likely to have been surpassed by export volumes, with a tight EU market maintaining demand for GB lamb, despite higher export price levels.

Pork

• Prime pig prices continue to look relatively flat, pointing to some softness in the market given the seasonal upswing between spring and summer that we have seen in most years. While prices have fallen slightly further behind year-earlier levels, the margin over the five-year average remains strong at around 25%, reflecting the reduced level of domestic supply since the financial crisis of 2021/22 coupled with lower EU pigmeat production.
• While the financial crisis of 2021/22 continues to have a lasting effect on prime pig production, GB abattoir throughput does appear to have steadied at around 2023 levels, with some room for a slight recovery in the second half, underpinned by an increase in availability on Scottish farms this year.
• During May, weekly slaughter at Scottish abattoirs remained below the higher levels seen towards the start of this year, suggesting some softness in the market, although a seasonal reduction in availability may have had some influence.
• UK pig market supply has been relatively flat in 2024-to-date compared to 2023 with domestic production and net imports at similar levels.
• EU pig prices have also been trending relatively flat in Q2 2024 and, since they have been significantly lower than in 2023, EU pork has, in theory, become more price competitive. However, UK import prices did start the year above the levels of early 2023 and imports took until April to show a significant increase. In China, the long-anticipated tightening appears to be underway following a jump in pork prices, but it remains to be seen if this will stimulate a rebound in import demand after a very weak start to 2024. However, a trade dispute between the EU and China is something to keep an eye on in the coming months as it could have implications for EU pork exports.

Economic developments

• Commodity prices have generally been flat at the start of 2024 with only a slight upside impact from geopolitical tensions. However, they remain well above pre-covid levels. A jump in grain prices in April and May, driven by a tightening in the outlook for this year's global crop balance, may have started to unwind in June following a strong start to the US harvest.
• While strong average earnings growth has continued to support household spending, retail sales remain relatively flat as inflation has slowed sharply. A period of wet weather around Easter appears to have resulted in a poor month for retail sales in April, both for food and non-food stores.
• Beef, lamb and pork all continued to show positive retail performance in the spring. However, for lamb, sales were underpinned by discounted prices at Easter and, with the ONS inflation data now picking up the pass-through of the surge in farmgate prices along the supply chain, there is a question mark over whether this strong performance can be sustained.
• Consumer confidence reached a 29-month high in May, as a year of wage growth outpacing inflation and lower energy prices supported some optimism around the outlook for personal finances.
• PMI surveys point to a lift in economic activity growth in 2024, driven by the service sector, but with the manufacturing sector's prospects finally starting to brighten. However, the ONS labour market data has signalled a significant deterioration and is something to monitor closely. While measures of employment and unemployment worsened, wage growth did hold firm at around the 6% mark, extending its gap over a slowing inflation rate.

Regional Meetings

The next regional meetings will take place on the following dates.
Monday 16th September – Carfraemill Hotel, Carfraemill, Scottish Borders
Tuesday 17th September – Garfield House Hotel, Stepps
Wednesday 18th September – Laichmoray Hotel, Elgin
Thursday 19th September – The Green Hotel, Kinross
All meetings will commence at 7.15pm and conclude at 9pm.
The meetings have a packed agenda including presentation from Corporate members Prephouse, TPS Scotland Ltd / Avo including a tasting of some of their products
Bewi our latest corporate member will be attending with a table to showcase their products.
Mark Turnbull, Turnbulls Food Hall, Alnwick will present “The Secret Silver Bullet to Grow Your Business” The 7 habits of highly successful retailers.
The evening will include the results announced for the “Beef Slice Sausage” awards sponsored by Colin Hewitson and “Make it with Pork” awards sponsored by Dalziel.
Please make a note in your diary and book your place to attend.
All meetings will commence at 7.15pm and conclude at 9pm.

Trade Fair 2025

The Scottish Meat Trades Fair returns next year at the Dewars Centre, Perth on Sunday 11th May 2025.

If you have any questions or queries, please get in touch using the contact details below.

MEMBER SERVICES – Bruce McCall:             [email protected]                01738 637472
CRAFT SKILLS SCOTLAND – Claire Simpson:    [email protected]               01738 637785

Bruce McCall
Scottish Craft Butchers
8-10 Needless Road
Perth PH2 0JW
Tel: 01738 637472
Mobile: 01738 637472