MEMBERS UPDATE 4th SEPTEMBER 2024

Recipe Formulation Grant – closing date Friday 13th September

Food manufacturers who supply the food service sector in Scotland's could receive upto £5,000 to help with recipe formulation of products to invest in any aspect of the existing product development process. Our mission is to help Scotland develop healthier food environments, for the benefit of public health. This involves ensuring healthier products can be found in all outlets; from staff dining, stadia and leisure to higher/further education and high street food outlets. If you want to offer more healthier options and meet health targets such as salt reduction 2024 or non-HFSS compliance, apply now to help us help you improve the health of Scotland's products and people

Apply now, or contact me to discuss how a reformulation project could benefit your brand. Closing date Friday 13th September.

Regional Meetings- confirm your attendance

The next regional meetings will take place on the following dates.
Monday 16th September – Carfraemill Hotel, Carfraemill, Scottish Borders
Tuesday 17th September – Garfield House Hotel, Stepps
Wednesday 18th September – Laichmoray Hotel, Elgin
Thursday 19th September – The Green Hotel, Kinross

All meetings will commence at 7.15pm and conclude at 9pm.

The meetings have a packed agenda including presentation from Corporate members Prephouse, TPS Scotland Ltd / Avo including a tasting of some of their products
Bewi our latest corporate member will be attending with a table to showcase their products.
Mark Turnbull, Turnbulls Food Hall, Alnwick will present “The Secret Silver Bullet to Grow Your Business” The 7 habits of highly successful retailers.
The evening will include the results announced for the “Beef Slice Sausage” awards sponsored by Colin Hewitson and “Make it with Pork” awards sponsored by Dalziel.
Please make a note in your diary and book your place to attend by email: [email protected] or telephone 01738 637472.

Quality Meat Scotland – Monthly Market Update July & August 2024
Please see our latest monthly update attached. A summary of the key points is below.

Beef:
• A seasonal reduction in prime cattle availability on farms across GB has seen a slow but steady rising trend for prime cattle prices in July become a more significant uplift in August, taking prices to their highest level since March and around 1% below their record high from May 2023. In August, prices have been running 6-7% higher than last year and 20% above the five-year average. Cow prices have followed the prime trade higher at a time of year when availability for slaughter is often climbing, but it took until the week to August 24 for any evidence of a seasonal bounce in cow kill at Scottish abattoirs.
• Although prime cattle slaughter has been running higher than in 2023 for much of the year-to-date at GB abattoirs, rising 3.3% in the January to July period, there has been a seasonal reduction since mid-June. At price reporting abattoirs, weekly slaughter has been averaging 6% lower in August than in the opening seven months of the year, helping explain the lift in farmgate prices.
• However, retail demand for beef has also been firm in summer 2024, with Kantar reporting that spending rose by 6% in the 12 weeks to early-August across GB, translating into volume growth of close to 3%. While imports have increased this year, driven by non-EU suppliers, trade has been relatively flat after a strong first two months and there has been a consistent rise in export demand in 2024.
• In the short-term, weekly slaughter is likely to remain below the year-to-date weekly average before picking up into the autumn as the spring calf crop from 2023 reaches abattoirs in greater numbers. However, a higher spring-2022 calf crop and a slight slowdown in the store cattle outflow from the highs of 2022 should still be supporting prime cattle availability in Scotland relative to 2023. The sharpest decline in the 2023 calf crop came during the middle of the year, so it will take time for this to filter through to availability.
• Looking longer-term, the continuing decline in the beef herd in 2024 points to further falls in production beyond 2025.

Sheep:
• The lamb market remained relatively stable for most of August, with lambs averaging around £3/kg lwt at Scottish marts. At this level, prices were15-20% higher than last year and 35-40% above the five-year average. However, a jump in marketings towards the end of the month has resulted in some downwards pressure on the trade.
• New season lamb supply may now be approaching its autumn peak, but it has been low in an historical context for most of the season-to-date, underpinning farmgate prices. While a cool, wet summer slowed the arrival of lambs, and we may now be starting to see a catch-up effect, a smaller ewe flock in 2023 and indications of a second consecutive poor lambing across GB in 2024 indicate that numbers are fundamentally tight this season. However, store lamb availability may have held up better in Scotland due to more favourable weather towards the end of the lambing season, and early sales volumes at Scottish marts look firm.
• GB retail data indicates that the higher farmgate prices of 2024 have started to pass through to retail prices, returning sales into volume decline along with lower domestic production.
• Wholesale prices in France for imported lamb continue to signal an attractive export trade and while volumes shipped have been lower than in 2023 since Easter, they have risen as a share of UK production.
• Despite recent farmgate price increases, lamb produced in Australia and NZ continues to look highly competitively priced, supporting UK import demand along with the underlying tightness of domestic supply. However, New Zealand's lamb crop is expected to be significantly lower in the season which is about to start.

Pig:
• Pig prices continue to look relatively flat overall, but a marginal upturn in late-summer points to some seasonal strength after a seasonally soft period between spring and summer. Prices have held around 20% above the five-year average, supporting the slow recovery of producer finances.
• GB abattoir throughput may be edging above 2023 levels with some room for recovery in the second half. However, a seasonal uplift in weekly slaughter between summer and autumn has yet to show up in the weekly deadweight price reports, supporting market prices in August, along with a delayed seasonal dip in carcase weights.
• After a firm June, weekly prime pig slaughter fell back at Scottish abattoirs in July, signalling a softening of market conditions when set against numbers leaving Scottish farms for slaughter. However, numbers are likely to show some year-on-year increase in the coming weeks due to a period of reduced output in 2023.
• UK pig market supply has rebounded in 2024, mostly driven by a slight recovery in domestic production. The continuing lower level of domestic production has restricted export capacity, but imports have only edged higher despite increased EU competitiveness.
• After declining in July, EU pig market prices have cooled further in August, with a slight rebound in pigmeat production this year from the lows of 2023 likely to have contributed to the downwards pressure. Although a tighter Chinese pork market points to some potential for imports to China to increase, there has been little sign of any significant recovery in UK and EU exports in 2024.

Economic Development:
• Commodity prices have generally been flat in 2024 with a more limited upside impact from geopolitical tensions than may have been expected. However, they remain well above pre-covid levels and energy costs are expected to rise in the autumn and winter. More positively for livestock producers, strong arable crop prospects in the US have led to downwards pressure on grain and oilseed prices, while a stronger sterling than in autumn 2023 may place downwards pressure on commodity values relative to last year in the coming weeks and months.
• While strong average earnings growth has continued to support household spending and inflation has now slowed sharply, retail sales look softer than in the early part of the year and food has underperformed non-food.
• Despite this, red meat has continued to show a generally positive retail performance. However, for lamb, while spending continued to increase moving into the summer, a period of volume growth appears to have come to an end with higher farmgate prices passing through to retail prices and tight supply constraining availability.
• Consumer confidence is at its highest levels in three years due to a year of wage growth outpacing inflation, lower energy prices and a cut in interest rates. As a result, an improvement in household finances may have encouraged an uplift in discretionary spending. However, confidence around the wider economy has softened again.
• PMI surveys point to a lift in economic activity growth in 2024, with both manufacturing and services sectors optimistic about rising orders and taking on new staff as a result. Meanwhile, the ONS labour market data has shown signs of improving after a soft start to the year. Wage growth has cooled but remains above inflation.

If you have any questions or queries, please get in touch using the contact details below.
MEMBER SERVICES – Bruce McCall:             [email protected]                01738 637472
CRAFT SKILLS SCOTLAND – Claire Simpson:    [email protected]               01738 637785

Bruce McCall
Scottish Craft Butchers
8-10 Needless Road
Perth PH2 0JW
Tel: 01738 637472
Mobile: 01738 637472
twitter.com/scocraftbutcher
facebook.com/scottishcraftbutchers/
www.craftbutchers.co.uk