News

Members Update 8th August 2025

Posted on by Bruce

QMS – Monthly Market Update May/June
 + The Scottish Red Meat Industry Profile 2025

Reformul8 Challenge Fund 5

Meet the Supplier Event – Prephouse – Book your place

QMS – Monthly Market Update May/June
+ The Scottish Red Meat Industry Profile 2025

Please find our latest monthly update attached.
Monthly market update May, June

A summary of the key points is below.

Beef:

  • Prime cattle prices edged higher again in July as a period of lower slaughter may have brought the market back towards balance. Despite being 10% below the spring peak, prices still averaged a third higher than last year in late-July. Attractive finished cattle prices and reduced numbers have continued to underpin the store trade, which has risen more strongly relative to 2024. Meanwhile, cow prices have stabilised around 6% below their spring peak, with seasonally low slaughter and demand for manufacturing beef supporting the market relative to prime beef.
  • In the Irish Republic, unsustainably high slaughter in the spring has been followed by a sharp reduction in kill in July, resulting in a jump in prime cattle prices towards Scottish levels. Slaughter is likely to rebuild at some point, reflecting a seasonal peak in Irish slaughter in the autumn, and, at some point there may be an impact on market demand and, in turn, competition for cattle.
  • Defra prime cattle slaughter figures point to a significant reduction of nearly 5% in GB in the first half of 2025, helping to explain the upwards rebalancing of farmgate prices this year. Lower cow beef production also contributed to an overall decline in UK beef production of nearly 4% in the first half.
  • A tight UK market balance in the spring resulted in lower export volumes and a surge in imports from non-EU countries, eventually offsetting some of the impact from lower domestic production, and taking some heat out of supply chain pricing.
  • Due to unexpectedly low slaughter through June and July in Scotland, it seems likely that there has been a build-up on Scottish farms, with a jump in the weekly kill in late-July reflecting this. In turn, slaughter may end up higher than initially expected through August and September. Numbers are still expected to tighten year-on-year in the autumn due to the smaller pool of prime cattle under two years old on farm in April. Looking longer-term, a slight rebound in calf registrations this year suggests that production could begin to stabilise in 2026 and 2027, which is positive given that rising human populations in the UK and at a global level are set to support demand for red meat in the coming years. This domestic economic opportunity is highlighted in the QMS and Scottish Red Meat Resilience Group ‘Meating Our Potential’ partnership campaign: : QMS | Meating Our Potential

Sheep:

  • Lamb prices remained unusually close to their new season peak in late July despite auction and abattoir throughput continuing to show significant increases on 2024 levels (+14% and +8% respectively). However, numbers do still look soft relative to pre-2024 levels.
  • In England and Wales, there are indications that lamb throughput has been more stable with June levels in July than usual, with sluggish grass growth likely to have delayed finishing, and this may help explain the surprisingly strong pricing levels for the time of year.
  • UK lamb export volumes surged in the spring over and above the increase in domestic production, supported by a further fall in EU sheepmeat production this year. However, overall market supply still increased slightly, due to increased domestic production and imports. In July, wholesale prices in Paris have fallen seasonally, suggesting a tightening of export margins, but this does not appear to have filtered through to GB farmgate prices.
  • While UK sheepmeat imports continued to increase relative to 2024 in the spring, this may not have lasted into June and July due to a tightening of supply in New Zealand.
  • A jump in lamb prices in the Southern Hemisphere reflecting seasonally lower production, a tightening of supply from 2024 levels and strong overseas demand is likely to have pushed up UK import prices further, potentially setting a higher market floor. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if imminent US tariffs of 10% on Australian lamb and 15% on New Zealand lamb will have an impact on global trade flows.

Pig:

  • Per kilo pig prices continued to follow a normal seasonal trend in July, rising slowly. Given the lack of upturn between spring and summer in 2024, year-on-year declines narrowed to within 1%. Prices ran 10-15% above their five-year average and are estimated to have held slightly above the cost of production, supporting producer confidence.
  • Slaughter figures from Defra point to an increased prime pig kill at GB abattoirs in the first half of 2025, building further on the rise in production in 2024. However, the kill has continued to trail the five-year average. Weekly slaughter is likely to start trending higher as autumn approaches.
  • The number of pigs leaving Scottish farms for slaughter fell slightly from 2024 in the first half of the year, but this didn’t stop the Scottish abattoir prime pig kill from continuing to increase, signalling favourable market demand.
  • UK pig market supply rose by around 4% in 2024 and further increases occurred in the first half of 2025 as a fall in net imports was unable to fully offset the increase in domestic production. Given higher supplies, a normal seasonal pattern in farmgate prices points to some demand-side strength.
  • Likely reflecting increased domestic production, imports from the EU have remained sluggish in 2025 despite competitive pricing. Meanwhile, UK exports have shown some growth, mostly in China, despite the Chinese market continuing to look sluggish this year. This export growth may reflect improved market access following the renewal of export licenses and opportunities caused by a sharp fall in US pork shipments into China due to increased tariffs.

Economic Development:

  • Volatility in US trade policy and exchange rates have the potential to drive volatility in commodity prices in 2025, with a lower US dollar and impacts on demand and economic confidence potentially softening input cost pressures, while disruption of trade flows could lead to new opportunities for UK exporters. The impact of trade uncertainty on car production may have influenced the weakness of hide prices, but sheepskin values have held up.
  • In 2025, geopolitical challenges have continued to have limited upwards impact on energy prices overall, although natural gas and fertiliser prices have remained elevated in Europe. Meanwhile, positive global harvest prospects have ensured that feed costs have continued to face downwards pressure.
  • According to the ONS, average earnings growth continued to hold above inflation in the spring, supporting disposable incomes, while the early signs from the UK labour force survey suggest limited impact on the labour market from increased minimum wages and employer national insurance rates. Spending on red meat appears to have held up as a result, although increased consumer prices have limited any overall volume growth, while pressuring beef sales volumes.
  • Business surveys continue to point towards little or no private sector activity growth in the UK, while suggesting that higher employment costs and soft demand have led to reduced headcounts in the private sector.
  • Weakness in consumer confidence continues to reflect pessimism around general economic conditions, likely influenced by the media, with a more balanced picture around personal finances.

 

QMS launched The Scottish Red Meat Industry Profile 2025 yesterday. This document aims to highlight the importance of the red meat sector to Scotland’s rural economy while providing the full range of industry stakeholders with key statistics for use in their work. Please see attached for details. 

Red-Meat-Industry-Profile-2025 

Reformul8 Challenge Fund 5

I’m very excited to announce the launch of the Reformul8 Challenge Fund 5. 

Scottish food and drink manufacturers can now apply for up to £5,000 to support a reformulation project, to make their products healthier. 

Use the funding alongside our free support to make any of the following nutritional improvements: 

The funding can be spent on anything from trial ingredients, nutritional analysis, new equipment or labelling, to external consultancy. We have many Reformul8 Partners we can connect you to for support, including ingredients suppliers and existing product development experts. 

Why is this industry support so important?
Nutrition policy has seen significant developments recently, with both the Scottish and UK Governments announcing changes that could impact Scottish food and drink manufacturers. 

In Scotland, two key frameworks have been published: the Good Food Nation Plan aims to improve health, environmental, and economic outcomes; and the Restricting promotions of food and drink high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) legislation is set to begin in autumn 2026.

We’ve supported Scottish SMEs in adapting to England’s HFSS rules and are ready to help you prepare for Scotland’s.

This is the eighth funding stream facilitated by the Reformulation for Health programme, awarding funding support to 92 SME food and drink manufacturers. It’s vital that all Scottish sites have the opportunity to access support, so please forward this email to any relevant contacts. Thanks go to Scotland Food & Drink and Food Standards Scotland for providing this funding. 

Get ready for HFSS restrictions, and meet consumer demands for healthier options:  Apply here 

Apply by 5pm on 5th September 2025. Read terms & conditions here

Meet the Supplier Event – Prephouse – Book your place

Prephouse and Shop visit – Northern Ireland – 22nd & 23rd September 2025

MEET THE SUPPLIER EVENT

Prephouse have kindly invited Scottish Craft Butchers members to visit their premises in Northern Ireland, together with visits to a few retail shops over two days.

Draft itinerary as follows

 

Monday 22nd September2025 arrival – am Belfast International Airport

22nd September,  depart from airport for Prep House in Crossgar

Arrive am , coffee, light lunch/afternoon coffee and factory tour.

Introduction to Prep House range of products and the opportunity for profit.

Sauce tasting,

Depart for hotel.

Free time.

Tuesday 23rd September 2025

Site visits – Addresses and details to be confirmed.

Assemble at Ballyrobin hotel for light lunch before departure to airport.

We have looked at flights from Edinburgh and Glasgow and they arrive around 9 am on the 22nd of September.

Return flight to Glasgow arrives at 1835 and Edinburgh 1735 on 23rd September.

An example of accommodation that can be booked is Holiday Inn Express Junction 1. This is a convenient location for all the planned visits.

(transport between airport and all venues we will arrange)

Initially, if you could confirm your interest in attending to Bruce McCall 01738 637472 or email [email protected].

MEMBER SERVICES – Bruce McCall:                           [email protected]                01738 637472

CRAFT SKILLS SCOTLAND – Claire Simpson:             [email protected]                          01738 637785